IGC GRAIN REPORT: HISTORICAL PEAK IN GRAIN TRADE

The last issue of the International Grain Council Grain Report that is revised monthly has been published. According to the report, global grain trade is forecast to grow to an all-time peak of 362million tons. Total grains estimates show that total production will fall down to 2 billion 92 million tons with an increase of %2.

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International Grain Council, an international organization seeking to further international cooperation in grains trade, has published its monthly report on global grain production, trade, and stocks. According to the last report, global wheat trade will break an all-time record this year. Total grains trade is estimated to reach 362 million tons with an increase of 9 million tons. According to the report which was published the 22nd of March, changes for 2017/18 since the last report are mainly for maize. Accordingly, corn production figures will increase 5 million tons while trade volume will increase by 20 million tons.
The forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is trimmed to 2,092m t, down by 2% year-on-year. With the figure for consumption raised, the outlook for carryover stocks is tighter month-on-month, now seen contracting by 17m t, to 606m. Revised a little higher month-on-month, trade is forecast to grow by 3%, to an all-time peak of 362m t. Record shipments of wheat and maize contribute to a forecast fresh peak for global trade in 2018/19.

According to the report, estimations on total grain production decreased by 5 million tons when compared to the February estimations. Total grains production is expected to post a modest decline, as a fall in wheat output is partly offset by increases for maize, barley and sorghum. Maize accounts for much of the expected growth in consumption, with that grain also mostly behind an 8% drop in world stocks. Grains trade is predicted to post a sixth successive y/y gain.

Amid tentative expectations for area gains in key producers, 2018/19 soybean output could recover to a new high. But with consumption trending upward, inventories may tighten. Reflecting worsening prospects in Argentina, the world 2017/18 soybean production forecast is cut by 6m t, to 341m, a 2% y/y decline. Inventories are also marked down, to 42m t, a drop of 5m from the season before. Preliminary projections for 2018/19 place output at a record of 354m t, the 13m y/y increase linked to area gains in key producers. With uptake predicted to grow further on feed sector needs, carryovers are anticipated to tighten, led by key exporters. Trade is projected at an all-time peak of 159m t.

Due to an upgrade for India, the world 2017/18 rice output forecast is raised by 2m t, to 486m, fractionally lower y/y. The net increase in supplies is channeled to a higher figure for use, leaving carryovers broadly steady m/m. Consistent with a revision for the prior year, trade in 2018 is boosted to about 46m t. Production could expand in 2018/19 on area gains in exporters, while consumption is seen edging higher, with stocks rising fractionally y/y. Trade is anticipated to remain elevated in 2019 on firm buying interest from Africa and Asia.

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In our previous article titled "GRAIN TRADE AT HISTORICAL PEAK" information is given about "China, export ve Grain trade".

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