Grain Production to Fall Slightly

The grain report of IGC says a small decrease is forecast in grain production in 2018/19. In the same period, total grain trade is expected to post a sixth successive record and this will lead a decrease in grains stocks.

market_report_101International Grain Council, international organization seeking to further international cooperation in grains trade, has published its monthly report on global grain production, trade, and stocks. According to the last report, which is published on 26th of April, only a small fall in grains production is forecast in 2018/19, as a drop in wheat output is partly offset by increases for maize, barley and sorghum. Grains stocks are predicted to show consecutive falls, mainly on reductions for maize and global trade is expected to post a sixth successive record in 2018/19. While a recovery in world soya bean production is anticipated in 2018/19, stocks could retreat slightly as consumption advances to a new high. Global rice trade is likely to remain elevated in 2018 and 2019, as Asian buyers look to ensure ample state reserves.

The estimate of total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2017/18 is only a little higher m/m (month-on-month) as increases for wheat and maize are nearly offset by reductions for sorghum, oats and rye. With larger opening inventories than before and with consumption trimmed, the figure for ending stocks is boosted, but is still expected to post a 15m t y/y (year-on-year) fall, the first contraction in five years. Including records for wheat and maize, trade is forecast at the highest ever level. The 2018/19 total grains production projection is little changed m/m, at 2,088m t, but features a cut for wheat (including for the US, India and Australia) and an offsetting increase for maize (EU, China). While bigger opening stocks lift overall availabilities, this is entirely absorbed by larger consumption, leaving the carryover projection unchanged m/m. The figure for trade is the same as last time, at a new high of 368m t. Global soya bean output in 2017/18 is trimmed by a further 2m t, to 339m, a 2% y/y decline, as a cut for Argentina is only partly offset by an upgrade for Brazil. The 2018/19 global outturn is placed fractionally higher than before, at 355m t, up by 16m y/y. And with total use cut slightly, inventories are lifted to 40m t, marginally lower y/y. The prediction for trade is reduced from before but, at 157m t, is still up by 5m y/y and a new peak. With upward revisions for key Asian buyers offsetting reductions for others, world rice trade in 2018 is seen unchanged m/m, at 46m t. The 2018/19 global rice output projection is lifted fractionally from March, at a record 493m t, the 7m y/y rise mainly on potential gains in major exporters. Since the increase in supplies is channeled to higher consumption, carryovers are broadly steady m/m, at 123m t. Trade is tentatively projected to remain elevated in 2019. Global export prices continued to rise in the past month, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) climbing by 4%.

In spite of a smaller harvest, record opening stocks helped to propel global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) supplies to a new peak in 2017/18. Consumption is set to reach a new high, including strong gains for feed and industrial demand of maize. Although wheat stocks will expand again (+18m t), this is seen being outweighed by reductions for coarse grains, including maize (-29m) and barley (-2m). With shipments of wheat, maize and barley all growing, world trade is forecast at a record. Total grains production in 2018/19 is projected to be only modestly below the year before, but because of a smaller carry-in, overall availabilities will fall by about 1%. This is largely linked to a reduction in maize supplies and as consumption of that grain is set to continue to climb, another drawdown of stocks is anticipated. A projected 51m t drop in total grains inventories includes declines of 45m for maize and 6m for wheat, the latter contracting for the first time in six seasons. A fresh peak for grains trade is predicted, including records for wheat and maize, a three-season high for barley, but a fourth consecutive y/y retreat for sorghum. To a large extent, trade in sorghum will be shaped by China’s needs, including the outcome of an ongoing anti-dumping investigation by that country.

World soya bean production in 2017/18 is forecast to fall by 2% y/y, to 339m t, albeit still more than 30m above average. While a number of producers will cut big crops, the y/y decline is linked to an anticipated plunge in output in Argentina, where adverse weather has limited area and yield potential. With global uptake set to advance to a new peak on gains in Asia, carryovers are seen contracting by 14% y/y, to 41m t. Much of the decline will likely be due to the major exporters, seen down by more than one-fifth, to 18.0m t, as accumulation in the USA contrasts with a heavy contraction in Argentina. Trade could rise by 3% y/y, to a high of 152m t. Due to tentative expectations for area gains in leading producers, world production may recover in 2018/19. However, with consumption predicted to expand, inventories could fall marginally, to 40m t. Global import demand is anticipated at a record of 157m t. World rice production in 2017/18 is seen only fractionally lower y/y, at 486m t, as larger harvests in Asia mostly offset falls elsewhere. With accumulation in China contrasting with a reduction in key exporters, global reserves are expected to hold steady, at 123m t. Given state efforts to ensure ample local supplies in Asia, trade should stay high in 2018. Prospects for 2018/19 remain tentative since fieldwork is many months away. Nevertheless, given firmer international values, area gains are possible in leading exporters as production reaches a high of 493m t, up by 1% y/y. With the predicted expansion of supplies matched by a population-driven rise in demand, stocks are seen unchanged y/y. Trade is expected to remain at peak levels in 2019, with India maintaining its position as the dominant exporter.

In our previous article titled "IGC GRAIN REPORT: HISTORICAL PEAK IN GRAIN TRADE" information is given about "grain, Grain trade ve historical peak".

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