MARKET ANALYSIS

Cheap start

“The most unpleasant news is the growth of BDI. The cost of freight is forcing to lower the price on the part of the seller, but this process is limited by the profitability of production, so in the near future either the growth of freight will stop, or these costs will be transferred to buyers. In general, the season begins …

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IGC increases its forecast for 2019/20 world wheat production

The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its forecast for 2019/20 world wheat production by 1 million tonnes to 764 million tonnes, with upward revisions for crops in France, the United States, Ukraine and Argentina partially offset by diminished prospects in Russia and Kazakhstan. International Grain Council, an international organization seeking to further international cooperation in grains trade, has published its …

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Wheat is on the stage

“While everyone is waiting for the end of the corn pollination period in the USA, Europe and the Black Sea region, the quality of wheat has become the main problem. The wheat market is now unbalanced by lower production forecasts in Russia and a shortage of fodder grain, while buyers are not willing to pay a high premium for the …

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International grain trading is no longer profitable

Over the past few years the ABCDs have hit a patch of high turbulence leading to a significant deterioration in their operating margins, Unigrains says in its study entitled: “International grain trading: what’s next for the ABCDs?”. On June 11th, Unigrains organised a breakfast meeting to discuss changes in the business model of the historical international grain trading companies – …

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Happy Grain Year: Time to check presents

“EU and the Black Sea started early grain harvesting. Total grains production in Ukraine soon reached 100 MMT, exports could be compared with Russian. After a record wheat crop 2017/18 TY, Russia decline in wheat exports but remains the leading seller. In 2018/19 TY, wheat exports number expected to be 37 MMT. According to USDA, world wheat stock to use …

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Drowned hope

“Beijing announced that negotiations would not resume until Washington corrects its wrong actions, but Trump continued to talk about the possibility of an “early” conclusion of the deal. As part of his visit to Japan, the American leader said that the States were not ready to make a deal, but noted that a great agreement would be reached in the …

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Fresh crop and fresh trade war

“Trump’s Twitter provides fresh White House trading strategy. They deny trade talks and the US stocks get higher while Shanghai Composite crashing. The grain market is low… The market is also very sensitive to planting data updating. Rain, snow and cold weather in the USA has certainly slowed spring planting progress so far. EU and Black Sea Region were cold …

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Who runs the market?

“Last USDA reports didn’t include the US flooding impact but we get another reason to pay attention to the weather: snow storm in the USA, Asians sowers, low-temperature condition in Europe. And grain markets will be higher as hopes for a deal between the US and China has the market cautiously optimistic one more time, as China and EU also.” …

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Another chance for bears: For how long prices will decrease?

“In the last WASDE report, global wheat supplies are reduced, primarily on lower production forecasts for Kazakhstan and Iraq. Projected 2018/19 world trade is fractionally higher as larger EU and Brazil exports more than offset reductions for the US and Mexico. Global imports are raised for Algeria, Morocco, and the Philippines while decreased for Bangladesh, the EU, Mexico, and Venezuela. …

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“Turkish farmers are tending towards barley, wheat planting should be encouraged”

Gülfem Eren, Chairwoman of Grain Suppliers’ Association: “We observe that our farmers are tending towards to barley instead of wheat since the price rise is below the inflation rate. We also observe that wheat farmers use less certified seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. We have to support wheat farmers and encourage production in order to ensure food security.” We are hosting an …

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